bizjournals: How much U.S. metros will grow -- bizjournals

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That’s why bizjournals is issuing its own population projectiond forthe nation’s 250 largest metropolitan areas, lookin g as far ahead as 2025. Bizjournals analyzed recent county-by-countyy growth patterns withineach state, and then used that informatiojn to predict metropolitan growth at five-yead intervals between 2005 and 2025. No one can foresee all of the economic twists and demographic turn that the coming two decades will but bizjournals’ projections suggest a rang of intriguing possibilities. Here are 10 of particular 1. New York City will retain first placr by acomfortable margin.
The nation’s largestt metropolitan area isthe 23-county New York City region, whic h spills over into Long Island, New Jersey and It had 18.8 million residents in 2005, according to U.S. Censuss Bureau estimates. No. 2 Los Angeles was far behind at 12.8 million. Los Angeles is growing more rapidly thanNew York, but not fast enoughg to close the gap appreciably. The two giants will still be separatedrby 5.8 million people in when New York has 19.8 millioj residents and Los Angeles has a shade more than 14 2. Houston and Atlanta will climbg into thetop six. Houston was the nation’ds seventh-largest metro in 2005, and Atlant a was No. 9.
Both will be moving higher in coming years. Houston is projectede to shoot up to fifth placeby 2025, addinh almost 2.6 million people to reacbh a population of nearly 7.9 million. Atlanta is ticketef for sixth placeat 7.3 million. The top four metros, by the way, will maintaib precisely the same order overthe 20-year New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Dallas-Fort 3. Detroit will drop out of the top 10, with Phoenix replacing it. Detroit and Phoenix are two of the most economicallgy troubled areas inAmericas today, but their future prospects are considerably Detroit is the only metro expected to slip from the top 10 durinyg the next two decades.
It’s projected to fall from 10th places in 2005 to 14th placein 2025, losint 59,500 residents during that span. Phoenix, on the other is likely to bounce back strongly from its current Its projected 2025 populationof 6.9 million will elevate it to sevent h place, up from 13th in 2005. 4. Raleiggh will set the fastest pace of anymetropolitan area. The three-count y Raleigh metro will virtually double its population during thestudh period. It had 953,000 residents in 2005, but shoulr be closing in on 1.9 million by 2025. That’zs an increase of 97.7 percent in 20 which equals an annual growth rateof 3.5 No other metro will expand as rapidly.
Five othed areas are projected to increase their populations by more than 80 percenr between 2005and 2025. They are, in ordetr of growth rate, Provo, Utah; Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Ocala, Fla.; Austin; and Port St. Fla. 5. Eighteen areasd are expected to lose at leasrt 5 percent of their current The biggest declines are projected for two metros along the Gulf ofMexico — Miss., down 23 percent, and New Orleans, down 19.3 Both areas were devastated by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. That damage affected their projection formulas, which were based on populatioj trends from thepast decade.
It remainsa to be seen if the two metros willsuffer long-term drops or will eventually recovefr from their short-term losses.